On a farm, a child is an investment—an extra pair of hands to milk the cow, or shoulders to work the fields. But in a city a child is a liability, just another mouth to feed.
Darrell Bricker & John Ibbitson, Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline (2019), Robinson
Population decline is a real problem in Japan, South Korea, Russia, Germany and China. But it's expanding in many other countries at an alarming rate.
A shrinking population often leads to a smaller workforce, which can slow economic growth, cause labour shortages, increased pressure on social services and create even more inequality.
Of course while many industrial and post industrial nations in the prosperous East and West have less and less births, the opposite is true of many developing countries in Africa, parts of Asia and Southamerica.
Immigration is going to be the only temporary, interim measure available to nations facing population decline. But, paradoxically, many of these industrial nations have become more and more radicalised towards the far right and less accepting of immigrants. Or better said: immigrants are being scapegoated and used by many unscrupulous populist politicians to gain votes by appealing to the lowest moral and intellectual common denominator of the electorate. It is the oldest trick in the book and Hitler used it in the dark days of Nazi Germany: create an enemy to unite against, even if there is no enemy.
Last August, in the United Kingdom, we witnessed how a rag tag group of white racists burned police cars, looted shops and attempted to burn down hostels with families of refugees and mosques in name of "British values" to give a recent example. These rioters were not the sharpest tools in the box but had been riled up by the discourse of different politicians on the right and by years of right wing media demonising immigrants and refugees as the "other" that was to blame for all their problems.
Islamophobia has increased greatly since 9-11 and one will often hear racist diatribes against Muslims by people who have never met a Muslim person, for example. Yes, radical Islam and terrorism must be fought and destroyed wherever it is found. And yes, I much prefer progressive Western values than many of the rigid and archaic values espoused by orthodox Islam. But this is besides the point. It is okay to be "Islamocritical" but it is never okay to be an "Islamophobe". Dialogue is what counts. Acceptance and tolerance are what matters and of course this must work both ways. The point though, is that Muslim countries don't appear to be suffering from population decline. They even have a huge surplus of people who will need to look elsewhere for a future due to job scarcity.
There are many causes of population decline but I will posit that the main one is the type of unbridled capitalism powered by neoliberalism that we have in the West and other industrialised societies today. Capitalism has created wealth and progress but it's main objective is the accumulation of wealth. Prices increase and cyclical financial crisis are part and parcel of this system in which most people get by and a very small minority grows richer every day. Inequality is on the ascent and the rich get richer and those who were getting by are less likely to continue getting by. Every aspect of life becomes tainted by the growing inequality which discourages and prevents the creation of families. The goal is to get by and when possible to get rich. Who wants to break his or her back working to feed a family when there are gucci bags to be had or expensive holidays in high end locations that present such wonderful fodder for our Instagram and Facebook feeds? Even for those who haven't fallen prey to consumer society, getting by is not an easy thing today. Why add more mouths to feed in a society which also demands that everyone lives beyond their means. The prosperous days of boom economies, plentiful jobs and relatively low rents and mortgages are long gone, at any rate. People can continue to pretend that they are living opulent lives on social media and flash the expensive accoutrements they have purchased on their credit cards. But the reality is grim because we live in a system which increasingly caters only for a minority. A society where greed and superficiality reigns and where one individual owns a large portfolio of properties that he sometimes doesn't make use of whilst many families live in cramped conditions and cannot get on the housing market.
So one doesn't really need to be a sociologist to see where we are heading. And the fact of the matter is that this shouldn't be a cause of shock or surprise: civilizations are born and civilizations die to be replaced by different civilizations. Capitalism is founded upon the premise of supply and demand. Everything is a commodity that can be bought and sold, including culture, values and civilizations themselves.
As capitalists tell us as soon as we dare critique their precious system: It's the way of the world.
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